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The American flag waves outside the U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C. Illustrative image.
Three Issues That Could Shape the 2026 US Midterm Elections
WASHINGTON — October 20, 2026
President Donald Trump's falling approval rating, rising household expenses and growing divisions over immigration are emerging as the main issues in the November 3 US midterm elections. The vote will determine whether Republicans retain control of Congress or Democrats win enough seats to challenge the president's agenda.
Republicans currently hold narrow majorities in both the House of Representatives and the Senate. Democrats need a net gain of four seats in each chamber to take control, making a limited number of competitive races especially important.
Trump has become a central figure in the campaign despite his declining popularity. He plans to hold rallies in Florida, Iowa, Michigan and Texas as Republicans seek to maintain their congressional majorities. A Reuters/Ipsos poll found that his approval rating had fallen to 31%, its lowest level recorded in the survey.
Trump has urged voters to treat the midterm elections as if he were personally on the ballot, hoping to encourage strong turnout among his supporters. However, his prominent role could also motivate Democrats and independent voters who oppose his administration to support Republican challengers.
Democrats argue that Trump has failed to deliver on promises to reduce living costs and end wars. They have pledged to make affordability a priority and investigate alleged corruption within the administration if they gain control of either chamber of Congress.
The cost of living remains a major concern for voters. Half of registered voters surveyed in a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll identified household expenses as the most important factor influencing their voting decisions. Healthcare, gasoline, food and housing were among the costs voters wanted lawmakers to address.
Republicans point to a tax-cut extension as one of their main legislative achievements. The measure was accompanied by spending reductions of roughly $1 trillion affecting Medicaid, the government health insurance programme for people with low incomes, and other health programmes.
Democrats, meanwhile, forced a government shutdown last year while seeking to extend health insurance subsidies that were due to expire and had benefited 24 million Americans. The disagreement highlighted the parties' different approaches to healthcare spending and government support.
Fuel prices have added to the pressure on household budgets. The national average price of gasoline reached $4.28 per gallon, up $1.20 from a year earlier, while diesel averaged $6.32 per gallon, an increase of $2.70. The increases followed US and Israeli military strikes on Iran in February.
Other costs have also risen. Grocery prices increased 1.8% over the previous year, while home prices climbed 2.1%, according to government data. Congress also passed a bipartisan housing bill earlier in 2026, which became law without Trump's signature.
Immigration is another major point of disagreement between the parties. Preliminary figures from the Department of Homeland Security showed a 95% decline in migrant apprehensions at the US southwest border compared with the period under former President Joe Biden. The department also said Border Patrol had not released any migrants during the fiscal year for the first time.
However, deaths involving federal immigration agents in Maine, Minnesota and Texas have generated criticism. The deaths of two US citizens in Minnesota prompted a political backlash and pushed some Democratic candidates toward stronger positions on immigration enforcement. Some called for the impeachment of then-Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, while others advocated abolishing Immigration and Customs Enforcement, commonly known as ICE.
The parties have also clashed over immigration enforcement funding. After negotiations stalled, Republicans passed a $70 billion bill without Democratic support to fund ICE and the Border Patrol for the remainder of Trump's presidency. Republicans have defended their approach by accusing Democrats of supporting open borders, a claim Democrats dispute.
Immigration enforcement has also raised questions about the treatment of political opponents. Federal immigration officials searched the Washington home of Democratic Representative Ilhan Omar of Minnesota this month, drawing condemnation from Democrats. A person familiar with the case said investigators may be examining whether the congresswoman's US citizenship could be challenged and whether deportation could become a possible outcome. These remain reported investigative possibilities rather than an established outcome.
Beyond the three main issues, artificial intelligence, cryptocurrency, abortion and US policy toward Israel could influence individual congressional contests.
In Ohio, Democratic Senate candidate Sherrod Brown has criticised Republican Senator Jon Husted over the expansion of data centres. The cryptocurrency industry has also become a factor in the race: the crypto-focused political action committee Defend American Jobs has spent more than $46 million to support Husted's re-election. Brown previously served in the Senate and chaired its Banking Committee.
In Maine, Democratic Senate candidate Troy Jackson is seeking to make abortion rights an issue in the campaign against Republican Senator Susan Collins. Collins helped confirm Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh, and the court later overturned the federal constitutional right to abortion. This election is Collins' first Senate campaign since that ruling returned the issue largely to state-level decision-making.
Michigan's Senate race is also drawing attention over US policy toward Israel. Republican candidate Mike Rogers has indicated he would accept support from a pro-Israel political action committee that spent more than $30 million backing Democratic Representative Haley Stevens in her unsuccessful primary campaign against Abdul El-Sayed. El-Sayed now faces Rogers in the general election, and the group has spent more than $280,000 on mailers opposing him.
Trump has also endorsed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for re-election, bringing the president's foreign policy into the wider political debate.
Although national issues are shaping the campaign, control of Congress will depend on the results of closely contested races across the country. Trump's popularity, the cost of everyday essentials and the debate over immigration enforcement are likely to remain central as voters decide which party should control the legislative agenda for the remainder of his term.
