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A historic red-brick church in Hampton, Virginia, reflects the religious landscape of the United States as support for Trump among white evangelical voters declines ahead of the midterm elections.
White Evangelicals Remain Trump's Strongest Republican Support Base Despite Decline
BLYTHEWOOD, South Carolina — October 22, 2026 — White evangelical Christians remain one of US President Donald Trump's most dependable groups of supporters, even as his overall approval ratings fall and concerns about living costs and the war with Iran create challenges for Republicans ahead of the November 3 midterm elections.
Reuters/Ipsos polling found that support for Trump among white evangelicals declined to 63% in October from 77% in January 2025. His support among the overall electorate fell from 47% to 31% over the same period. White evangelicals remain the only major demographic group tracked by the poll in which his support exceeds 60%.
The continued loyalty of these voters could help Republicans limit losses in congressional races. In South Carolina, religious and cultural issues remain important to many white evangelical voters, sometimes taking priority over economic concerns despite frustration over rising fuel prices and the cost of living.
At Village Church in Blythewood, hundreds of worshippers attended a weekly service focused on the relationship between the Bible and politics. Pastor Erik Estep discussed issues including gambling, abortion and socialism, encouraging his congregation to consider political questions through their religious beliefs without endorsing a particular candidate.
Karen Whiting, a 72-year-old retired pharmaceutical executive who attended the church, said she planned to vote for Republican Darline Graham rather than Democratic candidate Annie Andrews in South Carolina's US Senate race. Graham was appointed to fill the seat left vacant by the death of her brother, Senator Lindsey Graham.
Whiting said her decision was influenced by concerns about transgender women and girls participating in women's sports and by her view that Democratic policies did not reflect her religious principles. However, Andrews has also said she opposes transgender women competing in women's sports and gender-affirming surgeries for minors.
A voting guide distributed by the conservative Christian advocacy group Palmetto Family Council at churches across South Carolina also reflected the importance of cultural issues. The guide gave Graham favourable marks on all seven issues it assessed, including restrictions on abortion medication and gender-affirming care, while Andrews received mostly unfavourable marks.
Trump campaigned for Graham at a rally at Clemson University on Wednesday, focusing much of his criticism on transgender issues. Andrews offered a different view of voters' concerns, saying many people she had met at evangelical churches were struggling with the cost of everyday expenses.
"They're struggling with the cost of everything. That's why I'm running," Andrews said in a statement to Reuters.
The strength of Trump's support among white evangelicals was also evident in interviews with 15 people at two South Carolina churches. Only two said they were considering voting for Andrews, while none indicated they were abandoning Trump. Some expressed frustration with the war in Iran and higher gasoline prices, but most said they trusted Trump to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon or blamed inflation on policies introduced under former President Joe Biden.
Chad Connelly, an evangelical activist who leads the Christian voter-engagement group Faith Wins, said voters remained concerned about economic pressures but were also strongly motivated by social issues. He said concerns about transgender athletes had featured in discussions across many states he had visited during the election campaign.
Robert P. Jones, president of the Public Religion Research Institute, said the relationship between Trump and white evangelicals had developed through a political arrangement that became especially important during the 2016 election. In his assessment, many evangelical voters have prioritised Trump's positions on abortion, LGBTQ rights and immigration over concerns about his personal conduct.
White evangelicals account for about 13% of US adults but made up nearly one-third of Trump's winning coalition in the 2024 presidential election, according to research cited in the report. Pew Research Center data also show that more than 80% of white evangelicals voted for Trump in each of his three presidential campaigns. Their voting patterns differ sharply from those of Black Protestant evangelicals, who overwhelmingly support Democrats.
Their continued support could matter in several Senate races that may influence control of Congress, including contests in Iowa and Kansas, where white evangelicals represent a significant share of voters.
In South Carolina, however, Republican candidate Graham faces challenges of her own. A poll released this week by the Republican-leaning Trafalgar Group showed her leading Andrews by three percentage points. Graham also faced concerns among some conservatives following her appointment to the Senate and a narrow victory over US Representative Ralph Norman in the Republican runoff in August.
Some voters remain hesitant about Graham but are reluctant to support a Democrat. Kevin Thomas, a 53-year-old attendee at Village Church who backed Norman in the Republican runoff, said he was leaning towards voting for Graham because of his concerns about Andrews's position on transgender issues.
The election will test whether strong support among white evangelicals can help Republicans offset dissatisfaction among other voters. While Trump's backing from this group has weakened since early 2025, polling and interviews suggest that religious and cultural priorities continue to play a major role in its political choices.
